Quote:
Originally Posted by freddie
Does Ségolène Royal have any chance in round two?
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It's looking very difficult for her, the balance is clearly in favor of the right wing:
Right
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 31.11 %
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 10.51 %
Philippe de Villiers (MPF) - 2.24 %
Frédéric Nihous (CPNT) - 1.15 %
Total: 45.01 %
Left
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 25.83 %
Olivier Besancenot (LCR) - 4.11 %
Marie-George Buffet (PC) - 1.94 %
Dominique Voynet (Verts) - 1.57 %
Arlette Laguiller (LO) - 1.34 %
José Bové (Alter) - 1.32 %
Gérard Schivardi (PT) - 0.34 %
Total: 36.45 %
Center
François Bayrou (UDF) - 18.55 %
The center could tip the balance but Bayrou won't support either Sarkozy or Royal, Bayrou is now focused on the parliamentary elections (which take place a month after the presidential). Bayrou is probably going to create a new party to make a clear cut with the center-right past of the UDF and become a true centrist force. Bayrou's goal will be now to obtain enough seats in the next parliament to become an influencial force over the next government (right or left).
As for Bayrou's electors, there are indications that a large part simply won't vote in the presidential second round and is now waiting for the parliamentary elections, the rest will go more or less equally to the left and the righ so it won't change the balance.
Also, what a difference between Sarkozy's and Royal's speeches last evening! Sarkozy's speech was excellent, it was clear and inspired, and he talked very early, right after the results were announced. Royal's speech was an embarrassment, it was laborious, hesitant, and down right boring, and she appeared so late (what the hell was she doing all that time, hadn't she prepared anything because she didn't think she would make it to the second round?).