Turkey's final version sounds a bit too indian to win. Such songs just cant make it at ESC. One hearing is never enough.
I wouldnt put Sweden to 'has no chances list'. There are still straight girls and loads of gay guys watching ESC. It's not my taste but it doesnt sound as pathetic as some songs do.
For me 'no chance' songs are: Serbia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Denmark, Ukrainia, Monaco...
Songs that shouldnt have chance but unfortunately they do: Ireland, Poland, Romania, Belorussia, Bosnia.. They are bad IMHO. But u'll be surprised how many ppl actually like them. Most of all Poland and Romania. They say Bosnia improved with english version. Gonna check now. U can do as well
http://www.feminnem.com/video/Feminn...0Call%20me.wmv
And yes, it's quit a wierd ESC. This ear will show if ESC will remain what it was 20 years ago or will move ahead. There are definitely few camps there:
Traditional camp: Lithuania (indeed one of the best of this kind), Belorussia, Bosnia
Ethnic camp: it mixes with previous one at times. But here are originally 'ethnic-providing' countries like Cyprus, Greece (it can be as well put in first camp as it's more pop than ethnic), Turkey, Serbia and UK who decided ethnic is the only chance to do well (they arent this wrong. It's been some kind of fasion lately).
Rock camp: Russia, Hungary (mixed with ethnic tho), Moldova (same as Hungary), Germany, Swistonia, Estonia.. also Norway but if it wins it'll be more a step back than ahead. These countries decided to try something new at ESC and bring their some diversity.
Different camp: Ukraine with it's rap song wich is just plain wierd even for this year, France (i'd put it in the car i repeat, but ESC.. hell no).. these song just fall out.
Ballads camp: Slovenia (can be put in ethnic and rock camp as well.. thats why stands out may be), Netherlands, Monaco, Israel, Belgium, Malta... there is a dream that a ballad can win and some keep trying. But not.. i cant. Nver did in last years and not gonna do unless it's Slovenia.