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Sorry for double posting.
The 2009 tour starts in Monaco tomorrow.
Contador, who was given the tour in 2007 when Rasmussen was thrown off the race, had looked invincible ever since, but he cracked badly in this year’s Paris – Nice, so he is not infallible.
Evans has looked strong in his build up to the tour and sounds confident that he is in peak condition.
Sastre is the reigning champion, but I think he is unlikely to win this time. He is in a much weaker team this year.
Andy Schleck is the new leader of Sastre’s old team.
The tour will visit Monaco, France, Spain, Andorra, Switzerland and Italy, which means the spectre of drugs has already influenced the race. Valverde will not start because Italian police would arrest him if he went to Italy.
Result in Paris:
1. Schleck.
2. Contador
3. Evans.
Cavendish says he wants to finish this year’s tour. I think he could win the green jersey if he tries for it.
EDIT 04/07/09
Cancellara won the first stage, a demanding 15km individual time trial. Schleck finished within 45 seconds of Contador and Evans, so all looks good for the race.
EDIT 07/07/09
Having team time trials in major stage races has always been a bad idea. Evans lost 2 minutes 35 seconds today to Contador’s Astana team. His other rivals also made gains and his chances of victory look remote, even this early in the tour. Schleck is now 1 minute 21 seconds behind Contador, so that’s not too bad.
EDIT 12/07/09
The Pyrenees have come and gone and they have told us nothing, as far as who will win the tour is concerned. Contador took a few seconds on the only mountaintop finish, but the next two stages had 50km and 70km runs down to the finishes after the final climbs, which made attacking on the climbs pointless.
EDIT 18/07/09
Weather and terrain have made attacks for the Yellow jersey impossible, but that may change tomorrow when the stage finishes up a not too difficult climb. This is not a tour for the climbers.
The green jersey competition has been interesting though, and things haven’t gone Cavendish’s way in the last two stages. The profile of yesterday’s stage would normally mean a big sprinter like Hushovd would be out of the running to snaffle any points, but heavy rain and dangerous descents slowed the group of the favourites for the overall, so he was able to join a big bunch to contest the sprint for the minor places and take the green jersey.
Today, with Hincape in the break-away putting him in with a chance of taking the yellow jersey, the Columbia team had to try to slow the main field, but at the same time get Cavendish to win the mass sprint for 13th place. They did this, but Cavendish was adjudged to have illegally blocked Hushovd and was disqualified. The decision was right, but it was a very strange situation for Cavendish and his chances of wearing green in Paris are diminishing. Hincape missed the Yellow by 5 seconds.
EDIT 20/07/09
Contador took 43 second off Andy Schleck on yesterday’s final climb and over a minute off everyone else. Evans struggled, but he was unwell. Hopefully today’s rest day will do him good. Wiggins climbed brilliantly and must have a chance at a podium place in Paris.
EDIT 22/07/09
The last two stages have seen Contador strengthen his grip on the yellow jersey and only a meltdown of Paris-Nice proportions can stop him now. Yesterday he rode to the finish with the Schlecks, who had distanced the other contenders on the final two climbs.
Today, Contador won the time trial, helping him to a four minute lead in the overall. Andy Schleck looks fairly safe in second place, but the final podium place in Paris is still up for grabs, with four riders within 34 seconds of each other and a mountain top finish waiting for them on Saturday. The fireworks are going to fly. That’s for sure.
EDIT 27/07/09
The tour is over and withdrawal symptoms are setting in. The coming weeks are going to be really hard. The fireworks I predicted for Saturday didn’t materialise, with no one really able to threaten the riders above them in the overall, apart from Frank Schleck going above Kloden.
Contador won the tour at a canter, and it’s hard to see anyone putting him under pressure in the near future. Andy Schleck needs big improvements in his time-trialing to offer a serious challenge.
Cavendish won on the Champs-Élysées, making it six stages for the tour, but Hushovd held onto the green jersey by ten points.
Once again it was a good tour, with stunning helicopter shots of the race and surrounding countryside.
The way they were set out, the Pyrenean stages forced placid racing, so the main contenders didn’t come out to play until the Alps. That was a mistake in my opinion. The team time-trial should be scrapped.
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