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Old 17-10-2004, 00:05   #61
haku haku is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simon
Legally, the constitution can't enter into force unless all members agree.
That's not totally true, that's probably what the British eurosceptics are going to say to their people (if you vote no, nothing will happen), but that's not true.

From the EU constitution itself:

"If, two years after the signature of the treaty amending the Treaty establishing the Constitution, four fifths of the Member States have ratified it and one or more Member States have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification, the matter shall be referred to the European Council."

In clear, if at least 20 member states have ratified the EU constitution, it will become effective for those member states. The others will have the choice between simple withdrawal from the EU, or a new "associate membership" which probably won't be much more than an EEA membership. This new "associate membership" is not mentioned anywhere but it is already discussed in the "corridors" of Brussels, this new status could also be ultimately the one proposed to Turkey, since nobody really believes that Turkey will ever vote yes to the EU constitution, and if countries like the UK, Denmark and Sweden have become associate members, Turkey won't be as offended by it as it would now.
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Old 17-10-2004, 13:21   #62
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There is a bit of controversy about it - encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com says:

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In the event that 80% of EU member states have ratified the treaty after two years (i.e. by June 2006), while one or more member states have “encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification”, the European Council has agreed to reconvene and consider the situation. This agreement does not specify what the Council may decide to do, but it remains the case that no treaty can enter into force without being ratified by all parties to it.
http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionar...20for%20Europe

But I agree that it's opening the door for the 20-plus that ratify to proceed, while the others (Britain, probably Denmark and quite likely Poland) don't. Sweden isn't going to hold a referendum (only the Green Party and the Left Party are calling for one), so they will ratify regardless of what the population wants.

The majority of British people would probably be happy with EEA membership, because it brings a customs union and the right to live and work in other European countries. The other benefits EU membership has brought in terms of environmental and social policy are much less apparent to the public (although after expansion to the east, further progress in those areas is going to be limited anyway). But I can't imagine Tony Blair (who I think would probably resign) or even Gordon Brown being happy about leaving the EU. I don't think the constitution itself contains anything very worrying and bringing agriculture not only into qualified majority voting, but also partly under the control of the Parliament is a big improvement. Unfortunately, the environmentally disastrous fisheries and transport policies remain unreformed.

What is worrying is that the Council and Parliament together can amend the constitution in future. So we could be signing up to a superstate by stealth.

I doubt Labour would want us just to have EEA membership. More likely we'll stay in the EU, but with a weakened form of membership. I think the Danish public would be happy with that too. Poland would probably be lured back in with the promise of regional aid. The Swedish public will probably wish they could get a similar deal - after all they regret ever having joined.

Last edited by simon; 17-10-2004 at 13:34.
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Old 30-10-2004, 21:51   #63
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People who follow EU politics know that the new EU commission has been rejected a few days ago by the EU parliament. The main reason being that one of the commissioners, Rocco Buttiglione, has made homophobic and misogynistic comments which have outraged the left wing of the EU parliament.

This is good news for EU democracy, since the EU parliament is directly elected by the people whereas the EU commission is appointed by the 25 governments. In a way, it's a victory of the people against the governments.

What is more worrying is that apparently this new commission only lacked about 30 votes (out of 732 EU MPs) to be accepted. This shows that the conservative side is still very strong in Europe, the liberals had the majority, but only a thin one.

This event is also a perfect example of what i've been saying about Turkey's membership and how it's going to unbalance the EU.

Each time the EU is dealing with "sensitive" issues (like gay rights for example) there is always an almost equal repartition between conservatives and liberals, most of the time the liberals win, but only by a thin margin.

That will change when Turkey is a member, Turkey will add about 120 MPs to the EU parliament, almost all conservatives! The balance between conservatives and liberals will be broken with the Turkish MPs, the conservatives will become the large majority in the EU parliament.

I've seen a lot of people saying that once Turkey is a member, it will become more liberal but the recent events show that it's the opposite that is going to happen. With Turkey as a member, it's the whole EU that is going to become more conservative.

If Turkey had been a member now, this new commission would have had enough votes to be accepted, and now we would have a homophobic and misogynistic commissioner.
Knowing that the EU will become much more conservative in the future is definitely not good news, at least not for someone like me.
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Old 31-10-2004, 16:18   #64
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Not very exciting news, haku, but I believe in the reasonale approach even from the conservatives as the general EU strategy should be based on the idea of the equality of the humans and their rights. I doubt that EU will suddenly turn into a block of dictatures which will pass the line of any democratic values and become a bunch of restorators. In this case, Turkish presence inside the EU may serve a positive purpose as they have to behave strategically correct. In another words, I'm fine with Turkey becoming an EU-member.
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Old 04-12-2004, 20:12   #65
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I'm reviving this thread because two important events have occurred this week which relate to discussions we had earlier in this thread.

Less improtantly, the members of the French Socialist Party voted 59-41 to support the European constitution. That makes it unlikely that France will vote 'no' in its referendum, which would kill the constitution.

Probably more importantly for the future of Europe, the Ukrainian Supreme Court ruled that there should be a revote of the second round of the presidential election by 26 December. It now looks very likely that Viktor Yushchenko will be elected president of Ukraine and will lead the country towards the West.

A few months ago, haku wrote that the EU should never admit Ukraine and should accept that it is part of Russia's sphere of influence. I argued that if Ukraine wanted to join the EU, we should be prepared to let it in when it was ready.

There is an article in this week's edition of The Economist, 'The implications of a democratic Ukraine'. It talks about how France and Germany are appearently opposed to admitting Ukraine because if it was added after Turkey it would move the centre of gravity of the EU even further east. It also writes about how the objective of creating a single European welfare state is undermined by further expansion (too many countries at different levels of economic development) and how Ukraine would kill the Common Agricultural Policy (all those wheatfields). It concludes that just as the objective of a peaceful Europe requires expanding to include the Balkans (as the EU recognises), so it also requires expanding to strengthen freedom and democracy by incorporating the Ukraine. In a typical dig from The Economist, it comments that this is a more worthwhile objective than the Common Agricultural Policy or the working time directive.

I don't agree with The Economist very much (I'm actually fairly left-wing), but I think that they have a point here. I don't think that there's a logically consistent reason for the EU to expand to include the Balkans and not be prepared to include Ukraine.
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Old 04-12-2004, 21:04   #66
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Quote:
In another words, I'm fine with Turkey becoming an EU-member.
Turkey will be foreign body in United Europe for sure. It's an islamic country. The majority of turks have never shared and do not share the so called western values. I think that eurocracy should rather treat Ukraine as a potential candidate in the distant future. It's more democratic and more european.
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Old 04-12-2004, 21:08   #67
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But Turkey will have to undergo changes and they'll be under European parliament. The majority of the countries in the EU are non-islamic countries so there's no risk that EU will become islamic.

Ukranian question is still hanging up in the air. We'll see.
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Old 04-12-2004, 22:39   #68
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Quote:
But Turkey will have to undergo changes and they'll be under European parliament.
Yeah! They'll have to pass billls regarding equality of sexes, human rights issues in general,national minorities issues , freedom of press, use of death penalty and so on and so on... and moreover make alll those changes effective and not just put on paper. If the officials in Ankara try to implement all the requirements imposed by eurocrats and these guys ... I mean european officials... usually are so scrupulous and fight for every single letter, I fear Turks will revolt against their government.
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Old 16-12-2004, 19:33   #69
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It's done, Turkey will become an EU member. So, in a few years, the biggest, most populated, most powerful, most influencial country in the EU will be an Asian country that does not share any of the European values, this is ludicrous, outrageous, and dangerous. For me this is the end, the Ottomans have won.
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Old 16-12-2004, 23:08   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haku
It's done, Turkey will become an EU member. So, in a few years, the biggest, most populated, most powerful, most influencial country in the EU will be an Asian country that does not share any of the European values, this is ludicrous, outrageous, and dangerous. For me this is the end, the Ottomans have won.
Interesting thread.

Turkey may be a Muslim country but with the Islamaphobia of the West it wont have a significant impact on the EU. It is simply a wait and see approach ....

Maybe they will adopt European values, although I struggle to see any that are genuine across the EU members anyway, maybe they will resurrect the power of the Ottoman empire. Then we can all s**t ourselves ...
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Old 17-12-2004, 19:48   #71
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LOL. Easy Haku. It's not like Turkey is a fundamentalist islamic dictatorship of the Middle East like Iran, or like Afghanistan or Iraq were some time ago. Infact it's the most pro-west orientated Islamic country ever. It's still far from the liberal nature of the Euro countries, but it's not as bad as it looks superficially.
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Old 17-12-2004, 20:00   #72
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With the pressure of EU, Turkey is actually about to resolve the Cypriotic question. EU may have a positive influence on Turkey and get a fast developing and soon very prosperious country as a member. Haku is very much influenced by French media I think. We all are influenced of course but still, it depends on if you have an optimistic view or not. I have. I've been to Turkey and I like this country and people a lot, I even have a working pal who is Turkish, so my experience has been positive so far.
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Old 17-12-2004, 21:34   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freddie
It's not like Turkey is a fundamentalist islamic dictatorship
It's not my point, even if Turkey was an advanced democracy (which it is far from being), i would still be opposed to it, and i don't care about the main religion over there (i'm French, we are strictly laic, we are the ones who opposed to God and Christianity being mentioned in the EU constitution).
No, as i've already said countless times, i am opposed to Turkey simply because it's not a European country, it's not part of the European cullture, Turkey belongs to a totally different cultural area. In a few years, the biggest, most powerful EU member will be a non-European country, which is a ridiculous situation. I was totally ok with Germany having that role until then, Germany is at the heart of Europe, a link between Western and Eastern Europe, it was a balanced situation. Now it's going to be Turkey, a country in Asia at the far South-East of the EU, ludicrous.
Plus, like i've said in another post, Turkey is an ultra conservative country, they will have more than 120 MPs at the EU parliament, the balance between conservatives and liberals is going to be broken, with Turkey's MPs, the conservative side is going to be much stronger than the liberal one, with the help of Turkey's MPs the views of people like Rocco Buttiglione will provail then.
To me, sharing citizenship and sovereignty with the Turks is unacceptable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by forre
Haku is very much influenced by French media
Not that much, i've always been opposed to Turkey becoming an EU member, i remember having discussions about that in 1980s.
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Old 17-12-2004, 21:44   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haku
No, as i've already said countless times, i am opposed to Turkey simply because it's not a European country, it's not part of the European cullture, Turkey belongs to a totally different cultural area. In a few years, the biggest, most powerful EU member will be a non-European country, which is a ridiculous situation. I was totally ok with Germany having that role until then, Germany is at the heart of Europe, a link between Western and Eastern Europe, it was a balanced situation. Now it's going to be Turkey, a country in Asia at the far South-East of the EU, ludicrous.
Plus, like i've said in another post, Turkey is an ultra conservative country, they will have more than 120 MPs at the EU parliament, the balance between conservatives and liberals is going to be broken, with Turkey's MPs, the conservative side is going to be much stronger than the liberal one, with the help of Turkey's MPs the views of people like Rocco Buttiglione will provail then.
To me, sharing citizenship and sovereignty with the Turks is unacceptable.
Eu is still run by UK and France and Germany, which are super influencial countires and Turkey has no chance against EU policies. EU is not going to change and become an islamic union because of that. Then, Turkey is not going to be the most powerful country of the EU because they have the biggest population.

Quote:
Not that much, i've always been opposed to Turkey becoming an EU member, i remember having discussions about that in 1980s.
Politically, you are brought up on French media and that's enough.
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Old 17-12-2004, 22:27   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forre
Politically, you are brought up on French media and that's enough.
What i meant (and i'm sorry i didn't make that clearer) is that in the 1980s, French politicians and media were in favor of Turkey's membership, and despite that fact, i was opposed to it, so i'm not following the media blindly. They have changed their opinion, i haven't.

In the 1980s France supported Turkey's admission because France thought that Turkey had the same laic ideals than France. Both countries had built a republic based on a strict laicity, removing religion from political institutions and schools. France thought that Turkey was to the muslim world what France was to the christian world, an example of how religion can be removed from the public sphere and be stricly limited to the private sphere.
This good opinion of Turkey in France was shattered when an extemist muslim party came recently into power, after that a lot of French politicians and media changed their opinion, Turkey revealed itself to not be the country they thought it was.
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Old 17-12-2004, 23:11   #76
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haku, Okay then, the explanation is good enough. Then French media was influenced by you!
Time will show. We have Bulgaria on the way too. Turkey is already considering some changes in their political system by a pressure from EU, so what do you think?
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Old 17-12-2004, 23:14   #77
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Where is the update on this issue, huh? Now we have EU giving the "green light" - sort of speak - to our Asian muslim friends of Turkey for their eventual integration with EU ( as long as they recognise Cyprus as a unified country for the first time, that was the Greek stance in the first place ) though a lot is left to be discussed and the process might take up to 15 years:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4103931.stm

Any thoughts on the subject? Do we really want this country in the EU? ( Well I bet Blair and his buddy Bush - who hasn't got a say in this but anyhow - would find it very welcoming but what about the others? Germany and Austria say they'll go for a referendum on this issue )

Any thoughts?
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Old 18-12-2004, 00:37   #78
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I read something about Gypsies being oppressed in Romania, that's the most untrue story.

About joining EU : I think Romania isn't prepared yet.

agriculture : ha ! like in medieval age => 2-3 millions unemployed, at least
industry : low quality, low-tech => 1 million unemployed, at least
services : the most compatible with EU standards, but many of low quality and only at the begining. however, this sector will boom by joining the EU.

and also : corruption ! with EU money, the "cancer" planned to build 1 billion euro dam, somewhere in mountains !! or a 3.8 billion euro highway (10% of GDP) ... of course, in less corrupt countries these would be 2-3 times cheaper !

Joining EU will be a disaster, not for democracy, not for justice, but for the people. A more realistic date would be 2015.
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Old 18-12-2004, 01:27   #79
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Well Bulgaria is up to join EU as well ... in January 2007 and about to sign in April 2005.... what can i say ... Romania, Bulgaria - the difference is minimal.
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Old 18-12-2004, 22:06   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kr0k0
I read something about Gypsies being oppressed in Romania, that's the most untrue story
This sort of attitude is widespread among Romanians. Like in other Central and Eastern European countries, Roma (Gypsies) actually experience tremendous discrimination in Romania. I've heard the kind of opinions that even educated and otherwise liberal Romanians express. Rates of unemployment are very high largely because of blatant discrimination in job hiring. Most Romanians perceive all Roma as stupid, lazy and criminal and see nothing wrong in such discrimination. Most Roma children are classified by the authorities as 'mentally handicapped' and put into a separate education system supposedly for the mentally handicapped, but mostly for normal Roma children. Roma are frequently subjected to violent attacks and the police do not intervene to protect them. There is police violence, torture and deaths in custody - most of the victims are Roma. Amensty International's 2003 report on Romania commented on this phenomenon.

I don't have something in for Romania. Much the same is true of other Central European and Balkan countries. But it's a real problem that needs to be recognised, not denied.
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