France - General discussion

[Sunrider]

Originally Posted by haku

Presidential election, first round, provisional results:

1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 29,4 %
2. Ségolène Royal (PS) - 26,2 %

3. François Bayrou (UDF) - 18,6 %
4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 10,8 %

5. Olivier Besancenot (LCR) - 4,7 %
6. Philippe de Villiers (MPF) - 2,5 %
7. Marie-George Buffet (PC) - 2,1 %
8. Dominique Voynet (Verts) - 1,6 %
9. Arlette Laguiller (LO) - 1,5%
10. Frédéric Nihous (CPNT) - 1,2 %
11. José Bové (Alter) - 1 %
12. Gérard Schivardi (PT) - 0,4 %

Turnout: 86 %

Thanks! I'm quite disappointed about Bayrou not reaching the runoff. Not because I am particularly fond of him, or his platform, but between Royal, Sarkozy and Bayrou, he seemed the lesser of 3 evils to me.

What surprises me a little is Arlette Laguiller's result. Only 1,5%? During the last elections I think I remember her getting about 4%. Olivier Besancenot´s succes does not come as a surprise at all. I reckon many past PCF voters have voted for him during this election. As for the PCF itself, 2,1% is downright pathetic. This used to be the largest party in France, and was, until the 1970´s the dominant party of the left. La Mutation has been a failure for the party, it has blown up in their face, but they just won't let it get through to them.

[forre]

Thanks for the figures. As predicted.
The Grand slam final players

[nath]

Personally, I'm really happy about one thing: that French people went to vote in a such huge amount: I think it's around 79% of people who have voted against 58% in 2002.

The other point is the result: Sarkozy-Royal.
Even if Royal has her faults, I think it's important to maintain this Right-Left opposition.

Because even if a lot of left People have voted for Bayrou, we don't have to forget that previously he was from Right.

So I think, people would have lost interest for the 2nd tour if it would have been Bayrou at the second tour...I mean, I think about Left People.

Let's hope that the second tour will motivate French people in a such amount.

[the unforgiven]

YEAH I'm glad that more than 80% of frenchies voted today and secondly hooray for the FN result seriously it's a victory (even if it's still 4 millions of votes) I'm so glad that son of biiiiip failed haha! it's not a surprise that he's not in the 2nd round but it's cool that he's not the third man

[Sunrider]

Originally Posted by the unforgiven

YEAH I'm glad that more than 80% of frenchies voted today and secondly hooray for the FN result seriously it's a victory (even if it's still 4 millions of votes) I'm so glad that son of biiiiip failed haha! it's not a surprise that he's not in the 2nd round but it's cool that he's not the third man

I'll toast to that!

It didn't look for a moment like he would repeat his previous election feat, but still it's good to see his overall popularity dropping. A large portion of the far-right vote has gone to Sarkozy though, and there is a reason for that. But I've told you guys how I feel about him already so I won't bore you with that again.

[haku]

Presidential election, first round, final results:

1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 31.11 %
2. Ségolène Royal (PS) - 25.83 %

3. François Bayrou (UDF) - 18.55 %
4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 10.51 %

5. Olivier Besancenot (LCR) - 4.11 %
6. Philippe de Villiers (MPF) - 2.24 %
7. Marie-George Buffet (PC) - 1.94 %
8. Dominique Voynet (Verts) - 1.57 %
9. Arlette Laguiller (LO) - 1.34 %
10. José Bové (Alter) - 1.32 %
11. Frédéric Nihous (CPNT) - 1.15 %
12. Gérard Schivardi (PT) - 0.34 %

Turnout: 84.60 %

Source


I've voted for Bayrou so of course i'm disappointed, but 18% is not too bad.

[freddie]

Does Ségolène Royal have any chance in round two?

[haku]

Originally Posted by freddie

Does Ségolène Royal have any chance in round two?

It's looking very difficult for her, the balance is clearly in favor of the right wing:

Right
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 31.11 %
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 10.51 %
Philippe de Villiers (MPF) - 2.24 %
Frédéric Nihous (CPNT) - 1.15 %
Total: 45.01 %

Left
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 25.83 %
Olivier Besancenot (LCR) - 4.11 %
Marie-George Buffet (PC) - 1.94 %
Dominique Voynet (Verts) - 1.57 %
Arlette Laguiller (LO) - 1.34 %
José Bové (Alter) - 1.32 %
Gérard Schivardi (PT) - 0.34 %
Total: 36.45 %

Center
François Bayrou (UDF) - 18.55 %

The center could tip the balance but Bayrou won't support either Sarkozy or Royal, Bayrou is now focused on the parliamentary elections (which take place a month after the presidential). Bayrou is probably going to create a new party to make a clear cut with the center-right past of the UDF and become a true centrist force. Bayrou's goal will be now to obtain enough seats in the next parliament to become an influencial force over the next government (right or left).
As for Bayrou's electors, there are indications that a large part simply won't vote in the presidential second round and is now waiting for the parliamentary elections, the rest will go more or less equally to the left and the righ so it won't change the balance.


Also, what a difference between Sarkozy's and Royal's speeches last evening! Sarkozy's speech was excellent, it was clear and inspired, and he talked very early, right after the results were announced. Royal's speech was an embarrassment, it was laborious, hesitant, and down right boring, and she appeared so late (what the hell was she doing all that time, hadn't she prepared anything because she didn't think she would make it to the second round?).

[the unforgiven]

Originally Posted by haku

what a difference between Sarkozy's and Royal's speeches last evening!

I second that! I was so surprised by Sarko and not at all by Ségolène. it's a pity that she doesn't know how to make a proper speech
her speech was long and boring, I didn't pay so much attention
I guess she has a problem with speaking while reading a paper because when she's "natural" it's way better

[haku]

As required by law, Jacques Chirac and his wife have published a list of their properties before leaving office, it's in French so i'll sum up:

- château de Bity (that's the one in the picture), a small castle in Limousin region, estimated value of 500,000 euros
- a house in the same region inherited from Jacques Chirac's mother, estimated value of 60,000 euros
- various pieces of furniture and work of arts, estimated value of 200,000 euros
- 580,000 euros in stock accounts
- 74,000 euros in cash and saving accounts


Also, the article mentions that the Chirac couple has found a new 180m2 apartement in Paris (quai Voltaire, 7th arrondissement) where they will move in after they leave the Elysée palace in a couple of weeks.

[haku]

Sarkozy had a public meeting this evening here in Rouen, not a random choice of course since Rouen is the largest centrist city in France and both Sarkozy and Royal are trying to gather the centrist voters.
Unfortunately the centrist mayor of Rouen, Pierre Albertini, hasn't remained neutral, he was at Sarkozy's meeting, he officially stated that he was supporting Sarkozy for the second round and he even hugged the guy…
Rouennais are posting tonight on Albertini's blog and they are majorly *pissed*, no doubt that Albertini has lost tonight a lot of votes for next year's municipal election.

Le maire de la plus grande ville UDF votera Nicolas Sarkozy au second tour

[nath]

By hasard, I saw 45 mn of Sarkozy meeting , yesterday evening....after was diffused 45 minutes of the meeting of Royal...

I'm sorry , but I switched off the tv....what Royal said is SO flat.....
At the opposite, I absolutely agreed with Sarkozy's speach.

I was even surprised (because it's the first time that I hear a full speach of him) to observe how similar are my thoughs from his.
I know my reputation is absolutely dead now but I assume it!

Another thing, I was used, when I had to read a newspaper , to read Liberation..

So I read it these last times on the net...and I have to say that I was really disappointed...
Instead of a kind of comparaison between the different candidates and a kind of neutral analyse....it was just a part of this ashamed state of mind where , instead of analysing the program of a candidate, you joke about him/ and you use as a weapon the big CARICATURE!!!

[haku]

François Bayrou just had a press conference and as expected, he hasn't given any advice on how to vote in the second round (though he has clearly hinted that he will himself vote for Royal).
More importantly, he has announced that he will create a new centrist Democrat Party that will be ready for the next parliamentary elections (something that i fully support, bravo).
The UDF will most probably disappear, a few years after the RPR disappeared as well, it's a whole page of French political history that is being turned.

Originally Posted by nath

By hasard, I saw 45 mn of Sarkosy meeting , yesterday evening....after was diffused 45 minutes of the meeting of Royal...

I'm sorry , but I switched off the tv....what Royal said is SO flat.....
At the opposite, I absolutely agreed with Sarkozy's speach.

We were watching the same channel as i saw the same thing. Yeah, Sarkozy is a great orator, his speeches are remarkable. Royal simply doesn't know how to talk, the way she stumbles and pauses every four or five words is beyond annoying.

Let me add that i have no particular problem with Sarkozy and people who support him, he certainly doesn't scare me or anything, he's simply following a right wing policy and i can totally understand that, i even often agree with what he says in the economic field, but there are other fields where he's going beyond what i can personally support, he sounds way too pro-American for my taste (everybody knows that i am pro-European) and the way he speaks of religion and christianity goes against my strict secularist and atheist principles, i don't want the state to push religion on me.

And yeah, Libération has become a trash paper lately.

[forre]

Originally Posted by haku

Yeah, Sarkozy is a great orator, his speeches are remarkable. Royal simply doesn't know how to talk, the way she stumbles and pauses every four or five words is beyond annoying.

Then as it seems for now Sarkozy is going to be the next President. I don't think French people are going to choose someone, who embarrasses herself. France is an important figure in international politics. Royal is good for nothing speaking of representing France internationally.

[nath]

France doesn't work like that Olga...at the ultimate point, a French won't vote or will vote "blank"....but it's very very seldom that you will see a person from Left wing vote for a Right wing representant or a person from Right wing vote for a Left wing representant ...

There are some exceptions ,of course, as François Bayrou who was from Right Wing , then has definitely himself as a center person and now, even if he doesn't give officially directives to his members to vote, seems to indirectly push the things for that his members vote for Ségolène Royal ...with some little things as "Sarkozy is a Berlusconi...."...

[forre]

nath, French people are like any other people. They will think twice before voting for Sego. If blank, then Sarkozy wins anyway.

[nath]

Patrick, you who have studied the different programs with more attention than me...what do you think?
Do you think that the Bayrou's program is closer to the Royal/Left one or closer to the Sarkozy/Right one, please?
Merci

[Juliette]

Nath you can see the values shared by the UDF and UMP there : http://www.dialogue-initiative.com/l...s-UDF-UMP.html

that's the blog of Jean-Pierre Rafarin

hope it helps..

[haku]

Originally Posted by nath

Patrick, you who have studied the different programs with more attention than me...what do you think?
Do you think that the Bayrou's program is closer to the Royal/Left one or closer to the Sarkozy/Right one, please?

My personal opinion is that Bayrou is now closer to Royal than Sarkozy.

Let's put it this way, if i draw a line from left to right, and i put Fabius at the left end, and Sarkozy at the right end, i think Bayrou would be right in the middle, i think there are as many differences between Bayrou and Fabius as between Bayrou and Sarkozy.
Of course Royal is not at all as far left as Fabius, on my line, i would say that Royal is right between Fabius and Bayrou, as for DSK, i would say that DSK is between Royal and Bayrou.

The problem for Royal is that she has to navigate between her left (Fabius) and her right (DSK), if she went much closer to DSK and abandoned Fabius, she could easily form a coalition with Bayrou, Bayrou and DSK could easily govern together. But i don't think she's going to do that, not for this election, and Bayrou can't accept any agreements with the PS as it is, Bayrou can't govern with Fabius no more than he can govern with Sarkozy.

My personal hope (and i think that's what Bayrou is hoping too) is that the PS will soon break off in two parts, an anti-liberal part (the Fabius line) which would constitute an extreme left party (like what the FN is at the extreme right), and a social-democrat part (the DSK line) that would join forces with Bayrou's Democrat party to create a truly modern social-democrat opposition in France.

[haku]

Sarkozy has announced last evening that he will remove French troups from Afghanistan if he's elected, which is a good decision. I also remember that he mentioned several weeks ago that he would remove most (if not all) French troups from Africa, which is also a good decision (especially if it's all of them).
France is a small country that no longer has any influence in the world and we shouldn't have any troups outside of Europe (except in French overseas territories of course and French nuclear submarines can continue to patrol the oceans but that's it), i support a full withdrawal of French forces outside of Europe and i'm glad to see that Sarkozy is close to that opinion as well.