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Well, honestly, I watched half the debate just a while ago and I didn't see that much of a difference. Bush didn't stagger much and wasn't exactly incoherent when answering the stem cells question. He just said that he wants to balance ethics with scientific research and that was it.
Not to mention that for the most important aspect of the debate - the Iraqui war, and the war on terrorism - the viewers in America were swayed towards Bush. ( according to CNN ).
So basically Kerry has to cover a lot of ground before he can emerge as favourite. There's of course the argument that Bush is a dumbass who is not liked by anybody; Well, for a dumbass he did pretty good. Nobody would ever sustain that Kerry is dumber than Bush; it's just a matter of convincing some of the conservative voters to stray from the path and vote for Kerry on the grounds of being a better choice for a president... and, so far, he hasn't been that convincing...
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