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Vive l'Ecosse libre! But don't get your hopes up too much, Haku. Maybe there'll be an independent Scotland in a few years, but it's not very likely. First, the SNP need to form a government. Second, they need to get a referendum. Third, they need to win the referendum.
The SNP has won 47 seats in the Scottish Parliament, one ahead of the Labour Party's 46. There are 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), so the SNP or Labour will need support from other parties to form a government. There are 17 Conservatives, 16 Liberal Democrats, 2 Greens and one independent, Margo MacDonald, who was formerly an SNP politician.
The SNP can get to the magic 65 if they can form a coalition with the 16 Liberal Democrats and the 2 Greens. Labour with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens would fall just short, with only 64 seats. But it's conceivable that the Conservatives might tolerate a minority coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems and possibly the Greens as preferable to the alternative, an SNP - Lib Dem - Green coalition.
The big stumbling block to an agreement between the SNP and the Lib Dems is that the SNP wants a referendum on independence in 2010 and the Lib Dems don't. The Lib Dems have said that they would refuse to form a coalition with the SNP unless the referendum was dropped.
Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, suggested a compromise a few days ago. Rather than a yes/no referendum on independence, he proposed a referendum with three options: independence, more powers for the Scottish Parliament or the status quo which people rank in order of preference. The Lib Dems want more powers for the Scottish Parliament themselves.
Opinion polls indicate that maybe 40-45% would vote yes to independence and 55-60% would vote no given the straight choice. But when asked about the three options, independence gets only 20-25%, more powers for the Scottish Parliament gets about 60% and the status quo only 15-20%. It would seem likely to give a result the Lib Dems would like and not lead to independence.
The worries among the Lib Dems, though, are that an SNP-led government will try to get into conflict with London to create a mood for independence and that by 2010 the Conservatives will probably have won the next UK election. Most Scots hate the Conservatives and feelings about remaining in the UK may change when the Conservatives form a government with English votes.
On the other hand, forming a government with Labour, supported unofficially by the Conservatives, would be very dangerous for the Lib Dems because it would look like the only way to get a change from Labour is to vote SNP and that the other parties were ganging up on the SNP.
It's thought that Alex Salmond will agree to anything with the Lib Dems to get a coalition so he can form a government. The Lib Dems can play Labour and the SNP off each other to get what they want. I don't know whether the Lib Dems will accept Salmond's referendum compromise or whether they will insist on no referendum. Even if there is a referendum, it's unlikely to lead to independence unless there's a big shift in opinion.
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