[simon]

Originally Posted by haku

There is a big difference between the certain no of the UK to the constitution, and the possible no of France to the constitution.
The UK is going to vote no because it doesn't want a constitution at all, in France the socialist party is thinking about calling for a no vote because it thinks the constitution doesn't go far enough and is too liberal, the socialist party wants a stronger more federal constitution, it doesn't want France to leave the EU, it wants an even more integrated EU than what the constitution proposes.

The irony is that the main effects of the constitution is to reduce the number of areas where nations can use their vetoes. Who caused the introduction of the veto? France.

I'm not saying that the UK should be kicked out of the EU, but i do think that after it rejects the constitution, the UK will have to reassess its position. For the past ten years the UK has rejected every further integration in the EU, at the last EU elections (if i'm not mistaken) the BNP has made a huge score

The BNP didn't do very well. It was the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that did very well, with 15%. They're not neo-fascists like the BNP, they're just xenophobic right-wing nationalists.

from what i've seen in British media, the large majority of British people want the UK to leave the EU

No, in a recent poll only 22% wanted to leave the EU, although another 29% wanted a less integrated EU. Even putting both Eurosceptic options together, that's only just over half. The British people are pretty evenly divided between pro- and anti-Europeans. It's just that a large majority oppose the constitution - only 21% would vote in favour, according to another poll.

If our referendum is last and all the others are carried, then they will tell us that we have to vote yes or leave. Faced with a forced choice of the EU constitution or leaving, perhaps most people will prefer to stay in the EU. I expect that Poland and Denmark will vote no first and we'll vote no in solidarity, so they don't get picked on.

the British tabloids trashes the EU every chance they have and are also campaigning for the UK to leave the EU. If the British people are so unhappy about being in the EU, why force them to stay in? The UK should withdraw, the British people would be much happier obviously.

The British people don't really want to leave. They just enjoy complaining about the EU.

Whatever happens, the constitution is a turning point for the EU. Next year, the EU member sates will be divided in two groups, those that will have adopted the constitution, and those that will have rejected it. The EU will have to be reshaped, because there will be a huge gap between the members tied together with a common constitution which will continue toward further integration, and the "outsiders" which will remain pretty much where they are now.

We'll have to see how many countries vote no. Legally, the constitution can't enter into force unless all members agree. There's no provision for a country to leave the EU (the constitution will create a procedure for secession). I don't know how a two-speed Europe would work where some countries agree to majority voting and others can opt out. I think they'd go back to the drawing board and agree a new much more modest treaty.