[Argos]

Originally Posted by freddie

Norway says Russia to cut military ties with NATO.

On top of that they're blatantly threating a member state of the European Union.

This tells us two important facts:

1. Whatever Russia plans, they are in a hurry, they want to make their corrections to the world order before the USA can react accordingly. The opportunity is perfect. America is in presidental elections, their arms are bound in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the financial capabilities due to the budget problems are limited.

2. Whoever thought that Medvedev would be just Putin's puppet has now the opportunity to rethink. Putin's foreign politics in his early years was quite 'lenient' and full of concessions. This changed when he made Medvedev and Ivanov his vice presidents in 2005. Russia began more and more to put pressure on it's neighbours. Now, since Medvedev became president, they began to actively exercise their power outside the boundaries of the country. We don't need to be prophets, the next step will be to revise the situation in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by freddie

It's interesting how quickly people start bitting the hand that once fed them. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the mighty Russian Federation humbly accepted humanitarian aid from the USA & EU.

A little correction here. It was the USA and the International Monetary Fund who pressed Yeltsin and Gajdar into an economic 'shock therapy', which ruined completely Russian economy, moved the wealth of this country into the hands of just a few persons (and to foreign investors, not to forget!!!) and left the population to hunger in less than 10 years. Gratefulness?

Originally Posted by freddie

(Though I will admit the US missile shield is a preposterous idea in it's own right. Conflict is inevitable. Seriously, what the hell were they thinking? If they want to target Iran and other semi-threats in the middle east they should build it in Turkey.)

Strategically I don't see the sense. Even if Iran could reach Poland or other EU-countries the interceptors are way too slow for a missile which has to be shot over 1500 km. A defense against Russian missiles is also quite unlogical, the direction of the whole defense ensemble points towards the south-east, so it makes only sense for a defense system against Ukraine.

By the way, here is an in-depth analysis of the global background of the Georgia conflict, quite helpful for thinking about what we have to expect the next few months, by Stratfor: The Real World Order