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haku
19-05-2006, 15:01
Russia has a very high rate of population decline, the country is losing close to 1 million people every year. According to the UN and other official bodies, Russia's population (currently at around 140 million) will fall under 100 million by the middle of this century, and could fall as low as 60 million by the end of this century.

This would be a tremendous problem for any country, but Russia is not just any country, it's a gigantic country, which will cause problems of a specific type.
Most of the remaining Russians will be living in the European part of Russia, leaving two thirds of the country virtually empty. We can wonder if Russia will be able to maintain its territorial control over most of Siberia, especially with a southern neighbor like China, which by the end of the century will have become a superpower with close to 2 billion people, the empty lands of Siberia with their natural resources will look very tempting for an ever growing China.

Here's a page on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia) and another page on the Population Reference Bureau (http://www.prb.org/Template.cfm?Section=PRB&template=/ContentManagement/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentID=6506) about Russia's population decline.

Feel free to post more articles about that topic.

forre
19-05-2006, 15:05
I guess Russia needs to do something about it.

intervolkov
19-05-2006, 15:07
i think that:

when the URSS is death much people went in West Europe for try work and better life's conditional

haku
19-05-2006, 15:24
intervolkov, we have precise stats and migration is not responsible for the decline. Check that page on the Population Reference Bureau, you'll see that migration represents around 10% of the loss, the rest is simply due to the fact that there are much more death than birth in Russia.

I'll quote Wikipedia:
For every 1,000 Russians there are 16 deaths and just 10.6 births leading to a population decline of about 750,000 to 800,000 a year.And if you had migration numbers, you get close to 1 million less Russians in Russia every year.

marina
19-05-2006, 15:53
the empty lands of Siberia with their natural resources will look very tempting for an ever growing China.

Siberia is too harsh for them:D
Killing cold and inhuman distances will effectively prevent that!
It's almost too inaccessible for anyone apart from mighty russians.

Lux
19-05-2006, 18:03
it already looks tempting. talks between energy companies and the US have been going on for years and china, now more established as a potential world power, is also in the negotiation mix.
example here:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/09/business/rsibinvest.php
besides that, the US has had its eye on Russia's natural resources for years. With such a high rate of consumption of energy (i.e. approximately 40% of the world's energy consumption), the US cannot afford to let any potential resource slip out of sight. that being said, it is understandable that the US is interested. And as for China, with controlled population growth and a high potential for expansion in many industries (as some have already emerged to be major power and economic forces, such as nuclear power and the textile industry), it has to look far to protect and support this rate of growth and evolution. despite how China severed most of its connection with Russia years ago, it is a modern world and when resources are at stake, some of the past disagreements have taken place far on the backburners. Besides, it would be insane for China to pay little attention to what Russia can offer because of its neighboring proximity. That is, with so much so close, it is an advantage and convenience for China and Russia to forge a new economic partnership. And with Russia's economy in such poor condition, it is in Russia's best interest to use its resources to create partnerships with the most prominent and strongest candidates, and also to utilize the most out of them financially.


not to mention, russia's death rate exceeds their birth rate:
9.71 births/1,000 population (2002 est.)
13.91 deaths/1,000 population (2002 est.)
so the decline includes immigration from russia to other countries and a negative population growth.

freddie
19-05-2006, 20:07
I think it's more of a global problem than strictly a Russian one. The replacement level fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman (which would mean if every woman had approx. 2 children the population numbers would remain stable). Some experts claim that once a nation reaches a fertility level bellow 1.5 children per woman it is doomed to extinction. The problem is a lot of developed industrial countries reached that level a long time ago. Slovenia for instance has 1.2 children per woman fertility rate. The reasons for this phenomenon are diverse but can be traced back to the same basic problem: some grotesque properties of blatant liberal capitalism. For instance: An employer will be reluctant to offer a job to a qualified female who has a young family, plans one or worse... is pregnant. That's obvious since the employer will have to support her for 2 years while she's on her maternity leave. So the system of liberal capitalism and more specifically free market strives towards the employment of career women who don't want children or aren't planning a family in the near future. Of course there are also other factors involved: people get used to comfortable lifestyle which wouldn't be possible anymore after they'd have to support another human being. It all adds up... and it'll probably end with the extinction of all currently prosperous nations. Yeah goverments are doing their bid and enforcing sanctions which would stop this landslide, but so far it's not really working. It's like shoveling shit against the tide.

China on the other hand has a reverse problem. It's population is too fertile since the idea of a big family, which has been abandoned in many parts of the world is still alive there. The demographic explosion isn't really helping their cause and those who predict a Chinese dominance simply cause they'd outnumber other people are failing to see one thing - those people won't really be all that effective if they don't have enough to eat. And that's what'll happen if they don't artificially stop the population increase with goverment sanctions. No matter how immensely fast Chinese economy is developing it'll never be able to take on such a burden and will collapse on it's own weight. Once famine starts all those millions of people won't be thinking about invading Siberia, but rather overthrowing their corrupt communist goverment. And the communist party is aware of that. Hence the sanctions to REDUCE the population. Hopefully they'll succed. Things might sort themselves out anyway - once China reaches the economic status where an average Chinaman will be able to afford a life as comfortable as an average American or European the population might start droping gradually.

Rachel
20-05-2006, 13:02
haku, should I upload the video about this, do you think?

haku
20-05-2006, 13:15
haku, should I upload the video about this, do you think?Hmm, i'm not sure, it's a big file and a lot of work to upload. I'm not sure many people would be interested, it's a rather 'dry' topic. :gigi: Let's wait to see if some people would be interested before you take the time to upload. :)

spyretto
20-05-2006, 16:32
The decline in birth rate is by and large a European problem as well - while globally there is this situation that freddie described above, a disproportionate increase/decrease in the birth rate between the developed/developing countries and the third world. Granted, had the influx of immigrants from the former communist bloc not taken place, the prognosis for the half of the century would be just as grim for the whole of Europe as well. A UN report predicts that by 2050 the population of Europe will either remain the same in certain countries and decrease significantly in others. Italy, in particular, is expected to have a population decrease of 12 million ( from 57 to 45 ). While globally, Japan is gradually turning into a nation of aged people.
Russia is of course faced with an even sharper problem due to the aforementioned rise of the death rate; that is caused by a decline in health and a rise of violence and conflicts like Chechnya . AIDS alone is expected to claim the lives of 14 million people by 2050 ) while alcoholism, smoking and an unhealthy lifestyle in general play an important part too; at the same time that social welfare and the national health service are lagging dramatically. Abortion is the dominant if not the only method of birth control according to the report. That report states that a further 13% of young women who have an abortion will become infertile for the rest of their lives as a result.
Looking elsewhere on the report, while the indigenous population of Russia and Europe is declining, the population of USA is expected to hit 400 million by 2050 - an increase of 150 million; As the Russian life expectancy drops, US life expectancy will rise by 7 years.
Now, going back to the issue of Siberia. If the US or China have their way with the Siberian natural resources the consequences will be even more catastrophic for the environment. Siberia is not only a vast area of resources it also hosts a huge ecosystem preserved for centuries which will come under serious threat. Should that happen Siberia will become a vast depot of resources with a damaged ecosystem - very much like how the Amazon will be in due course - supplying the world with energy for our ever increasing needs.

All in all, the United Nation's report may paint a grim picture with regard to Europe's demographics, however the decline in population is expected to be equated by a massive influx of immigrants from india, Bangladesh and Africa ( which is expected to be 3 times the population of Europe even with the AIDS epidemic rampant ) And of course China, which now having further depleted its natural resources in return for massive economic growth has officially become the most polluted country in the world, and a huge factory that gratifies our insatiable hunger for consumerism.

Long live capitalism.

haku
04-12-2006, 02:24
Since we were talking in another thread how Mitrofanov and his LDPR cronies are blaming lesbians for the drop of Russia's birth rate, here's the lastest numbers published last week (source EU Stats, numbers in thousands).

Russia
Population on 01-01-2005: 143 474.0
Natural change: -846.6
Migration: +125.9
Population on 01-01-2006: 142 753.3 (-720.7)

Lesbians or no lesbians, Russia continues to lose around 750,000 people every year (the population was 150 million in 2000).


The situation is even worse in Ukraine actually as the country is losing annually half as much as Russia for a population 3 times smaller.

Ukraine
Population on 01-01-2005: 47 100.5
Natural change: -355.9
Migration: +4.6
Population on 01-01-2006: 46 749.2 (-351.3)

The population was 50 million in 2000.

Both Russia and Ukraine have a birth rate below 1.3, low immigration, and low life expectancy, so their populations will continue to decline steeply for several decades.

Argos
04-12-2006, 22:34
A bit sinplificated, but that's the result of western 'economy experts' for recovery of Soviet economy. The IWF made the plans, Yeltsin and Gaidar obeyed. The result: Deindustrialization -> Dequalification -> Depopularization -> Demoralization -> Destruction.

Now we have a population in fear and suspicion, oligarchs and authorities in contempt of their own people, there is no perspective for the future: not the climate for a growing population.

Leni
05-12-2006, 13:56
I´ve read that 50% (!?) of Russian families with children live under that official line that defines poverty (sorry I don´t know these terms in english :o ). Can this be true?
Russia shouldn´t decrease its population when it can´t even take care of the population it already has. I really hope it doesn´t before some big changes are made.

freddie
05-12-2006, 14:54
I completely understand Russian families. Why bring children into this world of fear and social uncertainty? Infact I have no clue why the world population is growing anyway since more than 70% of people live in what could be considered poverty.

Leni
05-12-2006, 15:53
Infact I have no clue why the world population is growing anyway since more than 70% of people live in what could be considered poverty

A poor family makes many children ´cause they need workers for their farms etc and since there is no social security they also need someone to take care of them when they´re old or if they get sick. The women especially are not educated and start making children at very early age. Lack of education is a problem really...These are some reasons I know...

Argos
05-12-2006, 17:29
I completely understand Russian families. Why bring children into this world of fear and social uncertainty?
The intriguing thing is, that the birth rate in Russia is not so much different from that of west- and central Europe, but the death rate is huge. The life expectancy of a new born female is about 72 years, that of males is about 59 years, compared to an average (male + female) of nearly 80 years for most European countries. The death rate can be compared only to countries of the 'Third World'.

haku
05-12-2006, 19:40
Another unique trait of Russia's population (and Ukraine's) is the huge gap between the number of males and the number of females, everywhere in Europe there is a bit more women than men (because women live a bit longer) but in Russia and Ukraine, it's completely off the chart.

In Russia there are 66.3 million males for 76.7 million females (21.6 for 25.2 in Ukraine), that's a massive gap of over 10 million.

The main reasons are poor health conditions and a very high rate of violent deaths (especially for younger males).
That plus poverty in general probably explain the massive "Russian brides" phenomenon which sees thousands of young Russian women leaving Russia every year to marry foreigners.
Funny how the LDPR is blaming lesbians for Russia's dropping population but isn't saying anything about all those nubile Russian brides who leave Russia to make babies abroad with foreigners… or does the LDPR consider nubile brides a valid Russian "export"?
In any case, there are over 10 million extra women in Russia, so that's plenty of room for lesbianism. :p

Valito
30-01-2007, 22:27
The main reasons are poor health conditions and a very high rate of violent deaths (especially for younger males).
That plus poverty in general probably explain the massive "Russian brides" phenomenon which sees thousands of young Russian women leaving Russia every year to marry foreigners.

I'm gonna say this: I live in a "third-world/developing (bull***t, we're actually undeveloping)" country: Argentina. Specifically, a small city (100.000 people) called Rafaela which, however, is the 4th best city in the country to live in. Now, I've been looking for a year for a Russian teacher here: guess what I found. A woman, Natalya who had married a Russian man and had a son: Dima. Then they divorced and she married her current husband, an Argentinian man who she met in Spain. And they had in Italy another boy: Agustín (extremely common Latin name). Now they're living here and plan to keep on living here. That I can say from Russia. And from Ukraine I know of a family (dad, mom and a child) who came here because the man speaks spanish and, as he couldn't find a job in Ukraine they came here hoping to be better (why they didn't go to Spain I don't know). The point is that now he's working with my uncle, who's a hunter and owns a (don't know how to call it in english) hunting place, you know like an artificial ecosystem where you pay for every animal you hunt. And this Ukrainian man is working as an interpreter because the number of former-USSR countries' hunters (specially Russian, Polish and Ukrainian) has increased a lot.

And about the birth/death rates, here in Latin America the life expectancy is not that high, and poverty is extremely popular. However families keep being big, and parents keep having 3-4-5 children, sometimes more. I think it's also a matter of tradition, you know Latin America was colonized specifically by Spanish, Italian and French people, along with a few else Europeans. And when they came here they had an average of 10 children because they needed people to work on the soil. And that tradition has remained, despite the fact that it has reduced almost 60%.

To finish I'll add this, in 2001 there was a huge crisis in Argentina. You may have heard about it, the "cacerolazos", we had 3 different presidents in 3 days and the banks wouldn't allow the customers to get money, people didn't get paid for 3 weeks until the banks gave up because the people was literally taking them down. It took the whole year of 2002 until the things got a little better or, at least, quieter. Rafaela was the city where that blow was felt the least, that's why now is the 4th best city in the country. So, what happened? It became a pole of attraction and, in only 4 years the population of the city grew a 40%. Now this city, my city is full of (I don't mean to be offensive) niggers. And I don't mean to be offensive because I'm talking about the niggers (who, by the way are not niggers, they're called mulatos, children of spanish and aborygens, hence dark skin colour) who are everything but civilized. You see little children in the streets asking for money or food, and if you give them something and track them you see their parents, wearing Nike and listening to cumbia (I'm sorry but I can't call that music) in their Sony Ericsson Walkman cellphones. Of course the children are starving and dressed in rags. And you wonder how can this be possible? And there's no rational explanation, you have to accept it because it can't be fought back. Not here at least, where 5 years ago you could go downtown on your own, not being scared of being attacked or even killed by a "nigger" who's only looking for your f***ing watch (which is probably an imitation :bum: ).

PS: There are 4 new neighborhoods in the city where police don't go into, 'cause they get shot. You read the local newspaper and everyday there's an article about 2 girs who were raped and murdered in Barranquitas (one of the neighborhoods, the worst), or 3 teens who were drugged and drunk and robbed a house and killed the owner's baby 'cause he didn't stop crying and it made them uneasy (it really happened).